A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may be causing them to miss state shifts.

Chances are, you’ve never been contacted for an election poll. But the dozens of high-quality election polls that will be released before Election Day represent a reasonable estimate of the opinions of all Americans.

The Constitution sets out broad principles for electing a national government and leaves the details to the states.

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten breaks down recent polling in battleground states.

The key to a close race in Michigan is to wait for Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw counties to release significant batches of votes before jumping to any conclusions. Wayne includes Detroit, while Oakland is made up of the city’s northern suburbs. Washtenaw County is home to Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan.

Republicans have enlisted legions of poll watchers in Texas and across the country ahead of the Nov. 5 election, a move they say will safeguard against potential election fraud. The situation reflects a national debate in which Republicans warn about the need to combat election fraud,

The poll also found that the majority of women, 59%, have become more interested in politics in the last several years. In contrast, 16% said their interest has decreased for this election cycle. Similarly, engagement in politics has gone up among women.

New rules in Georgia that some officials fear could inject chaos into November’s election have links to a controversial group that has gained outsized influence in the Peach State.

Harris led by 2 points in Michigan (48 percent to 46), and a point in Nevada (48 percent to 47), Pennsylvania (48 percent to 47), and Wisconsin (47 percent to 46). In Georgia the candidates are tied at 47 percent. Trump leads by one point in Arizona (48 percent to 47 percent) and 2 points in North Carolina (47 percent to 45 percent).

A new poll suggests a shift in voter sentiment, with Harris now seen as the candidate with a new vision for the American people.

On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control Congress) with a bunch of other quantitative and qualitative data to figure out which candidates are likely to win in each congressional district.